The Failed Attempt to Host Cop31 Looks Chaotic – Yet It Could Actually Be the Best Result Possible

Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the top if his government led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.