Trump Voters for Mamdani and a New Progressive Alliance: The Biggest Surprises from New York’s Election

Only two days before the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange made a significant forecast – going beyond who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, a political analyst born and raised in the city, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors favored the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the tally every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of ballots that came in later and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible in which election day went somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which the opponent would have basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But the winner added 500,000 votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president last year backed Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the night was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured we might go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I wish he does so afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Including one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really surprised me. Cuomo kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added all of these Republicans on the island with a high participation. I think occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to the former president endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported the independent. Thus there was a little resistance. But no, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the election there was coverage on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that each urban center in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.