The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.
Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.
However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.
At the end of a election period focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.
Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.
Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.
In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.
This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.
Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.
Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.
Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.
After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.
Film critic and industry analyst with a passion for uncovering cinematic trends and storytelling techniques.
