Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine

Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Just days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."

• Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
• Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.

Reduced Influence

According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president benefited from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.

The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he said.

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.

Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the war is proving harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.